TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AQUACULTURE AND CAPTURE FISH PRODUCTION AND PROJECTION OF FUTURE TREND IN BANGLADESH

Mohammad  Saifuddin; Wazahat  Ullah; Md. Kausar  Rahman; Md. Abdul  Hye

doi:10.53808/KUS.2022.ICSTEM4IR.0184-se

Authors

Mohammad Saifuddin Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Bangladesh University of Business and Technology (BUBT), Mirpur-2, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Wazahat Ullah Department of Economics, University of Chittagong, Bangladesh
Md. Kausar Rahman Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Chittagong, Bangladesh
Md. Abdul Hye Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Bangladesh University of Business and Technology (BUBT), Mirpur-2, Dhaka, Bangladesh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53808/KUS.2022.ICSTEM4IR.0184-se

Keywords:

Aquaculture, capture fish, Mann-Kendall, ARIMA, AIC, BIC, Ljung–Box test, co-integration.

Abstract

This study is conducted to identify the trends in aquaculture and capture fish production in Bangladesh from 1960 to 2018 using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann Kendall test and apply time series modeling to forecast aquaculture and capture fish production (in metric tons). The data is retrieved from World Bank (WB). To forecast, ARIMA models are used and optimum models are selected by simulating several candidate models with AIC, BIC, mean squared error, and white noise error as selection criteria. Co-integration between two time series (aquaculture and capture fish) had been tested to establish a vector error correction model (VECM). Sen’s slopes for both aquaculture and capture fish production are positive and significant (p-value<0.01). This study found that the ARIMA (1,2,1) and ARIMA(1,1,0) are the best models to forecast aquaculture fish production and capture fish production in Bangladesh. The estimated aquaculture fish production will be 47,17,014 metric tonnes, and capture fish production will be 25,15,141 metric tonnes in the year 2028. The co-integration test confirms that there is no long-run association between aquaculture and capture fish production. Since increasing fish production will mitigate the necessity of adequate food and nutrition for the growing population, this study will assist policymakers in setting a sustainable and prospective hunger-free Bangladesh.

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