A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF ALCOHOLISM IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

In this paper, a POHR mathematical model has been developed and put through its paces to learn more about the developing health and social problems in Bangladesh associated with alcohol where POHR stands four population classes: Potential drinkers, Occasional drinkers, Heavy drinkers, and Recovered and quitters of drinking. The dynamical behavior of this model is explored, and the system's basic properties are determined, as well as its basic reproduction number R0. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the system has been discussed. The model's equilibria states are obtained and their local asymptotic stability is established by analyzing the eigenvalues and the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. Sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number indicates that encouraging and supporting potential drinkers to avoid adopting drinking habits and occasional drinkers to quit alcohol consumption is more effective in the long run at controlling the spread of alcoholism than focusing exclusively on alcoholics. Additionally, Bangladesh's alcohol consumption percentages, alcohol-related and natural-cause mortality rates, and other factors are considered to illustrate our numerical findings, which were generated using the MATLAB software and demonstrate the model's practical reliability. The purpose of this study is to identify criteria worthy of further investigation in order to inform and aid policymakers in allocating preventative and treatment resources most effectively.